A prediction contest for 2023, featuring UK politics and economy, global politics and world events and science, the arts and miscellany. Read on to find out more and enter.
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I’m broadly a fan of the theory that, when making predicitions, you should try to (a) be specific; and (b) attach a specific probability to them, so that you can see how well-calibrated you are – and ideally get better at making predictions. I’m more likely to respect pundits who do this, especially when they are good at it.
A week or so ago I did Scott Alexander’s prediction contest which, although interesting, I found focused too much on topics I don’t have that much expertise in (e.g. US politics) or topics I’m largely uninterested in (e.g. the performance of various crypto-currencies). So, although my readership is 2-3 orders of magnitudes lower than his, I decided to create my own 2023 Prediction Contest, focused much more on the UK.
The contest consists of 40 questions, with 20 on UK politics and economy; 10 on world politics and global events; and 10 on science, entertainment and miscellany. For each event, you have to say the probability (represented as a percentage between 0 and 100) of it happening. The aim is to predict how likely each event is to happen. The goal is not to predict everything perfectly, but to be well calibrated; in other words, if you predict 10 events have an 80% chance of happening, and 8 do, that is a good result.
You do not have to answer every question.
I have also recorded my own answers and registered them with a friend to ensure I don’t change them. I’ll publish my own predictions on this site once the contest has closed.
Results will be published in January 2024. Unlike Scott’s contest, the prize is only honour and glory.
The contest is open until 11:59pm UK time on 20th January. Please do share this link with others and encourage them to enter, even though strictly speaking this is not in your interests and will decrease your chance of winning.