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Tag: No Deal

Prorogation, Salisbury and Self-Denying Ordinances

Prorogation, Salisbury and Self-Denying Ordinances

“We’ve gone from a democratic exercise involving over 33 million people to the future direction of the country being decided by c.100k+ people while making the rules up as we go along and in which suspending parliament is being seriously discussed. Well done everyone.” – Philip Cowley, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University, London A quote that’s as brutal as it is accurate. The UK has been slowly lurching into a constitutional crisis for at least the last six…

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After May: The Way Forward for our Nation

After May: The Way Forward for our Nation

With May’s departure, the below sets out how I hope that events will unfold for the nation, and for the Conservative Party, over the next few months. 1. After a robust but civil contest, a Tory leader is appointed who is both genuinely committed to Brexit and who is willing to forthrightly champion conservative values, rather than speaking the language of the left(1). 2. New PM asks the EU to alter the Withdrawal Agreement to fully remove the backstop and…

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We have nothing to fear from No Deal

We have nothing to fear from No Deal

In my latest article for Conservative Home, I draw on my 2014 Brexit paper to show that we have nothing to fear from No Deal and set out high level policy proposals for how we would make it a success. Read the full article below: Iain Mansfield: We have nothing to fear from No Deal

‘No car is better than a bad car’

‘No car is better than a bad car’

(Alice and Bob are buying a car. Bob wishes they weren’t buying a car. The reason they need to is because Alice has got a new job, which is further away from home, and for which she needs a car. Bob didn’t want Alice to take the job, as it means she’ll be home later, and the two of them discussed it lengthily and angrily – but in the end they decided that Alice would take it. Alice wants the…

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Where next for Brexit?

Where next for Brexit?

I was proud of our Parliament this week. Despite all the divisions, Parliament – primarily Conservative, DUP and some Labour MPs – came together to reject all the amendments that would delay or block Brexit and, as importantly, vote in favour of a clear way forward. By backing the Brady amendment, it is now clear to the EU that there is a deal, not so different from the one on the table, that the UK would accept. It’s worth saying…

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Predictions for a No-Deal Brexit

Predictions for a No-Deal Brexit

Many people are talking of leaving the EU without a deal as being a disaster. Even setting aside the obviously histrionic claims that it will cause millions of deaths, normally serious commentators – and many Remain supporting friends who I’ve discussed this with – are regularly using terms such as ‘disaster’, ‘catastrophe’, ‘severe economic damage’ and ‘untold harm’. We have of course been here before. Before the vote, we were told that a vote to Leave would, even before we…

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Brexit Possibilities

Brexit Possibilities

It’s often difficulty trying to estimate probabilities, particularly when there are many different potential futures.  Availability bias means we tend to assign a greater weight to the options we’re thinking about, even if they’re actually quite a small sample of the possibility space. Brexit  at the moment lends itself to this, with a large number of options opening up in an increasingly unpredictable landscape. Complicating matters is that there are a lot of different paths to many of the options….

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Conservative Home: To ensure that Chequers is the end of the concessions, prepare swiftly and publicly for No Deal

Conservative Home: To ensure that Chequers is the end of the concessions, prepare swiftly and publicly for No Deal

In my latest Conservative Home article I argue that we should support the Chequers deal – but only if we simultaneously ramp up preparations for no deal, to ensure no more concessions. I also consider the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1993, to show just how swiftly a country can be separated if the political will to do so is there. Read the full article here: Iain Mansfield: To ensure that Chequers is the end of the concessions, prepare swiftly and…

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