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GuestBlog: ‘Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold’: Where next for the Liberal Democrats?

GuestBlog: ‘Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold’: Where next for the Liberal Democrats?

Jack Nicholls was once very nearly a political academic, but is now another thing. He considers himself an egalitarian liberal and Euro-pragmatist. He’s gotten used to the wilderness now. All views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the host of this blog. I have a leaflet in my house, somewhere, with the words ‘Project 320’ on it. It is amber and white, it was delivered in I think mid-November, perhaps earlier. It…

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What If? A Brexit Fantasy

What If? A Brexit Fantasy

This post is a fiction, a fantasy. The subject of this post was chosen by the winner of my pre-election sweepstake. It is intended to be plausible (though see the afterword), rather than probable, and a light-hearted exploration of how history could, in a very different world, have turned out differently. In particular, none of the positions, statements or actions taken by real-life politicians referred to in this piece should be taken as the actual positions, statements or actions they…

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Age and wealth effects

Age and wealth effects

When thinking about how voting patterns differ with age, people distinguish between three types of effect: Age effects: The effect is a factor of the person’s age. For example, maybe young people are more likely to vote for a party promising lower tuition fees and old people for a party promising higher pensions. With an age effect, as people get older, their voting patterns will change. Cohort effects: The effect relates to a specific cohort of people (e.g. those born…

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Thoughts on the Local Elections

Thoughts on the Local Elections

This may have been the election in which the Lib Dems finally put tuition fees and the Coalition years behind them. Despite their success, it’s worth noting they still won fewer councillors than in any local election between 1993 and 2010 – but they made big gains from a very low base, and won a national equivalent vote-share of 19%, all of which points to them being back as a significant player. It was a terrible night for the Conservatives….

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